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Ethiopia Tread Six Years with Magnanimity/Amen Teferi/
The Nile basin which was assumed to be the most dangerous water resource has now changed into a pillar of cooperation. We saw many encouraging development in this regard over the last six years. Starting with the Nile Basin initiative (NBI) Ethiopia has gone a great length with magnanimity breaking many psycho-political hurdles surrounding the Nile basin.
Now everyone began to see the potential the Nile River can offer in forging strong cooperation among the riparian countries. Now, we can envisage the possibility of having a grand scheme of regional water development plan that would take in to account the political realities of every country in the region. Now they are ready to engage in constructive dialogue and thus Nile basin countries seem to be ready to work out a regional water development plan.
Therefore, over the last six years, what had been a key source of conflict in the region is becoming an avenue to forge stronger economic cooperation in the region. The age-old animosity feeling and mistrust is fading away. The fierce interstate rivalry that characterizes the Ethio-Egypt relation has now undergone significant transformation that would open up a venue for a warm friendship between the two countries. Rephrasing the old adage, now I would say water is thicker than blood.
Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt have assigned international experts that would study the impacts of the construction of the Grand Renaissance Hydroelectric Dam on the lower riparian countries the Nile basin. This was an unthinkable project just six years ago. This symbolizes the true transformation of the relationship of the Nile basin countries.
The GRHD has caused strained relations between Ethiopia and Egypt when the construction of began in 2011. Presently, that strained relation transformed into spirit of cooperation.
We remember, on March 2015, Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan had signed on a declaration of principles whereby they agreed on the construction of the dam, but also decided to conduct technical studies in order to guarantee that Egypt and Sudan are not significantly impacted by the construction of the GRHD.
Then Ethiopia declared that it will respect the results of the studies these consultation offices will conduct, however, it had made clear that it will not be obliged to abide by the results. Thus, the technical studies being conducted do not pertain to the construction process, but rather to the operation process. All along the last six years Ethiopia has reflected a just position in utilization of the Nile River and now Ethiopia is close to finishing 56% of the construction of the GRHD.
In my view, the future is promising. Gone are the days when the heart and mind of the people of three countries are incarcerated in fear and suspicion. Gone are the days when the three countries are engaged in the business of destabilizing each another’s government by supporting insurgents. Belligerency has now given ways to constructive engagement that would promote the strategic interests of the three nations. In the past, fear and mistrust had incapacitated their vision and subverted the huge potential of forging excellent cooperation.
Now the leaders of the three countries have committed themselves to build an unprecedented economic, diplomatic and political cooperation between the three sisterly countries. As they become willing to appreciate each other’s interests and concern, the general condition for cooperation will eventually improved in an increasing manner. As Hailemariam Desalgn has repeatedly underscored the cordial relationship of the three countries will have huge impact on the entire region.
Particularly, the cooperation Ethiopia and Sudan have established is meant to promote economic integration, while envisaging a political integration in the long term. The development exhibited in the relationship of the two countries can represent the changing nature of the politics in the Horn of Africa. As the premier has noted their relationship would ensure the peace and security of the Horn as it allows them to make strong alliance in the fight against terrorism.
Beggaring one’s neighbor was a finely developed political art in the Horn of Africa. Unlike the present, Sudanese regional policy during the 1990s was characterized by regional aggression (exporting political Islam) that has ended up antagonizing it with all its neighbors.
Sudan under NIF was exacerbating the chronic problems of the Horn by its aggressive foreign policy that was designed to spread political Islam to the farther corner of the region. This has alerted the government in the region to engage in covert and overt move to contain or remove the government in Khartoum.
Hence, it had fragmented the regional diplomatic landscape and weakened the regional organization IGAD by further complicating the civil wars both in the South Sudan and Somalia and disrupted the search for peace.
In the past, the Ethiopian government like its neighbors was unable to identify where its true national interest lays visa vise its neighbors. In fact, all countries in the region were oblivious of the economic dimensions of peace and security in the Horn.
The diverse complexity and incompatibility of the political system in the region has therefore become venue for regional conflict. Hence, the Ethiopian government has devised a foreign policy that is prefigured as solution to the historical contradiction that deposed the Horn as the most fragile crisis region of the world. The policy aims at transforming the longstanding confrontational attitude into cooperation.
The new strategy aims to address the root cause of the political crisis that has predisposed it to protracted conflicts among its different political entities. It tries to address the central source of all problems of instabilities in the country and the Horn. The old pattern of governance did not give due attention to the cultural identities of the citizens who sought for self-determination. The net result of this failure has reflected in the behavior of increasingly nervous and isolated political groups and the declining human rights situation.
The non-participatory character of the political systems or lack of democratization has contributed to both political instability and the socio-economic decline, which partly explains the politicization of ethnicity and religion in Ethiopia.
The foreign policy that Ethiopia sought to implement before 1991 does not realize the crucial factor that its vulnerability emanates from its weak socio-economic and undemocratic political arrangement. Hence, EPRDF has tried to redefine this arrangement in light of the wishes and aspirations of the Ethiopian people. This helps Ethiopia to develop a viable political and economic formula that has fundamentally transformed its political structure and helps it to manage its political problems.
The undemocratic governments and their parochial policies have opened up considerable room for both internal strife and regional instability. Governments of the Horn of Africa were the dominant threats to their own the citizens. The authoritarian governments of Ethiopia were incapable of identifying and defining Ethiopia’s national interests and had narrow definition of security based on consideration of military defense and regime stability.
Therefore, they resort to force in trying to resolve issues that rather are best addressed through long-term diplomatic processes. Hence, they usually slide into foreign adventures and unwanted wars. On the contrary, the EPRDF government does not pursue a foreign policy that would lead the country into unwanted wars.
Moreover, the democratic governance is also a safety valve that would seriously constrain the government from pursuing destabilizing regional policy. The democratic and truly representative nature of the governance that Ethiopia had put in place after 1991 has eliminated the seeds of potential conflict within itself.
Now, Ethiopia does not export conflicts in the Horn. The internal and external policies that it has adopted have enabled her to dispel intensive intra and inter-state conflicts. This largely explains the cordial relationship Ethiopia is now enjoying with Sudan and other countries in the Horn. These changes have transformed the longstanding inter-state rivalry and politics of destabilization that has been assumed as the main characteristic of the Horn. Overcoming its defects, Ethiopia has managed to pursue realist foreign policy that has served her as a means to catalyze peace in the region. With completion of the GRHD the political landscape of the Horn of Africa will further transform for the better.
