Heading for fair utilization and economic integration in the Nile basin
Bereket Gebru
The issue of ensuring fair utilization of cross border rivers has been a tricky one where things have mostly gone in favor of powerful riparian countries. Powerful nations dictate the terms of utilization of other riparian countries. There is even a large group of experts who analyze that competition over water is one of the top upcoming reasons for countries to go into war. Therefore, the situation is not sustainable for the future.
The situation over the Nile had been similar to most of the cross border rivers. Egypt has been the main user of the waters of the Nile with the Sudan a distant second as it was signatory to an agreement with Egypt. Despite the presence of ten riparian countries over the Nile, Egypt has been the principal user of it. It also went out of its way to make sure that these riparian countries do not pursue any projects over the river.
Although the plight of the people of upper riparian countries was at times worse than the people of Egypt, these countries were effectively barred from utilizing the water resource in their boundary to alleviate their problems. Despite the situation, riparian countries always tried to assert their water rights over the Nile. The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was a major move towards the assertion of those rights. The move has also prompted other upper riparian countries to forge a united call for the fair utilization of the Nile. Although Egypt reacted furiously at first with all sorts of threats aimed at Ethiopia, it has since then steadily realized that the resource is shared and absolutely not exclusive to it.
The fact that Ethiopia designed a project that serves the interests of lower riparian countries as much as its own has helped to demonstrate its commitment to the shared fair utilization of the resource. By pursuing an aggressive diplomatic engagement with lower riparian countries and working with upper riparian countries to form a common forum for fair utilization, peaceful transition to a more amicable arrangement over the Nile is much more feasible for all now.
It is also pursuing a policy that enhances economic ties with other riparian countries in the basin. This revamped economic relation could help bring rapid economic integration to the region. The basis for this projected rosy scenario, however, depends on building trust between riparian countries. Accordingly, Ethiopia designed the GERD to be beneficial to lower riparian countries as well.
To make my case about the perks of the GERD to lower riparian countries, I will first use the testimony of a notable Egyptian hydrologist – Seifulaziz Milas. The Egyptian hydrologist noted in his article “Ethiopia: Nile Waters Diplomacy and the Renaissance Dam”, “In 2008 the Eastern Nile Power Trade Studies carried out prefeasibility studies at three sites in the Abbai Gorge under the auspices of the Nile Basin Initiative/Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (NBI/ENSAP) in which Egypt had been taking an active part. These studies confirmed the suitability of the present site along with others for hydropower generation and for the promotion of interregional trade in power supplies. According to the experts, the amount of water available to the downstream riparian states would not be affected. Even if Ethiopia drew significant quantities of water, Egypt and the Sudan would still benefit from the construction of the reservoirs in Ethiopia.”
There are also a number of Egyptian hydrologists and Nile experts who back the fact that the dam would not decrease water discharge with some even going further. The Nile Basin Core Group (NBCG) is where such opinions are heard aloud. In what has been a notable scientific revelation on the topic, Haytham Awad, a hydrologist from the University of Alexandria, conducted research that indicates the GERD may actually increase water flow to Egypt. Awad’s research shows that during the flood season in late August and early September, the majority of Egypt’s water arrives in Lake Nasser, where it is stored for approximately ten months until peak agriculture season in July the following year. During this period, approximately twelve percent of the stored water evaporates. On the other hand, the evaporation level in the Ethiopian highlands water storage projects is only three percent. Therefore, the water being stored in the GERD, where there will be less evaporation, will help conserve water.
As Prof. Sief El Din Hamad Abdallah, the Sudanese Minister of Water Resources, pointed out at a forum organized by the Sudanese Bar Association in cooperation with the Ministry of Water Resources in March 2012 on The Cooperative Framework Agreement between the Nile Basin Countries and the Impact of the Secession of South Sudan, “Most or more than 80 percent of the Nile Basin water resources evaporate in the route from the sources to the final destinations in Sudan and Egypt, and that in South Sudan swamps alone more than 53 billion cubic meters evaporate yearly.” Considering the GERD is only twenty kilometers from the Sudanese border and the Blue Nile meets the white a good distance away from the South Sudan swamps, it is beyond contention that the GERD provides ideal water storage that adds more water to lower riparian countries.
Historical accounts document that the Nile has always caused floods and dry spells seasonally, especially in Sudan and Egypt. Long term attempts to control the flow of the Nile have culminated in the construction of the Aswan Low and high dams in Egypt. Though the construction of the Aswan high dam controlled seasonal flood waters, mass flooding occurred upstream on the Nile displacing a large number of people and devouring sites that were once the home of archaeological wonders. The flooding also contributed to an increase in erosion along the lower courses of the river.
The narrow Nile valleys of Nubia in the Sudan have also been subjected to flooding and dry spells seasonally. This centuries old problem has been confronting the Sudanese people living along the banks of the river whose rise and drop of water amounts are both unfavorable. The construction of the GERD would, however, tackle this old problem by ensuring a steady year-round flow of the river. That could prove to be a very valuable change in both Egypt and Sudan as it positively affects agriculture and other economic activities the river supports.
The other major problem associated with the Blue Nile in lower riparian countries has been the deposition of silt, fertile soil washed away by the river, behind their dams. The lake that is formed behind the Aswan high dam, Lake Nasser, provides the best instance of silt deposition. The Aswan High Dam Reservoir extends for 500 km along the Nile River and covers an area of 6,000 km2, of which the northern two-thirds (known as Lake Nasser) is in Egypt and the remaining one-third (called Lake Nubia) is in Sudan. As a result of years of silt deposition behind the dam, the water holding capacity of Lake Nasser is shrinking. In simple terms the lake is filling up with silt that subsides to the bottom of the lake and gradually takes up much of the space displacing water. Experts have also projected that the rapid siltation near the head of the reservoir in Lake Nubia of Sudan may dam up the narrow Nile valley in Nubia in a relatively short time since 99.98% of silt was deposited in Lake Nubia Until 1973.
Another problem associated with silt deposition behind the dams is that it denies Sudanese and Egyptian farmers of free fertile soil that makes their lives easier while demanding a big chunk of money from the government for cleaning it up. Prof. Sief El Din Hamad Abdallah, the Sudanese Minister of Water Resources, in the March 2012 forum stated above, noted that the accumulation of silt at the Egyptian High Dam in Aswan had now reached 6 billion cubic meters. He further stated that his country spends US $12 million to remove mud from the irrigation channels of the Gezira Scheme. The banks of the Nile are also undergoing severe erosion, because they are being eaten away by the Nile without being replaced by fresh silt, and the fertility of the Nile Delta has declined dramatically.
A significant decrease in the amount of silt deposited in downstream dams would help lower riparian countries spend less on cleaning up while providing an opportunity for farmers along the banks to benefit from government assistance in their agricultural endeavors. By taking up part of the silt that currently goes to lower riparian countries, the GERD would dramatically decrease silt deposition in both Sudan and Egypt increasing the water holding capacity of their dams.
With the main aim of the GERD being the generation of hydroelectric power, both upper and lower riparian country have a lot to benefit from it in this regard. The project is expected to produce 6000 MW of electricity per year. This amount leaves Ethiopia with an electric power surplus after meeting its demands. That surplus would be sold to both upper and lower riparian countries, strengthening their ties in the utilization of Nile resources. Ethiopia has already started selling electric energy to Kenya whose purchase of electricity has contributed a lot towards the fulfillment of its demand to electrical power. The Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation has also completed the transmission lines to make Sudan the second country to benefit from Ethiopia’s export of power. The 296 kilometer transmission link has a 230 kilovolt capacity and will start operations this year.
One can infer from the above facts that the GERD is tremendously beneficial to upper and lower riparian countries alike. Considering its contribution towards increased water, lower evaporation, flooding, seasonality and silt deposition, however, it vividly shows that Sudan and Egypt are the two countries that benefit the most. Strengthened relations over the Nile waters and other forms of economic integration would help draw the people of the riparian countries together.