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Deadlock to the tripartite discussion on GERD
Tesfaye Lemma
Ethiopia has been attempting to apply a win-win approach among riparian countries. It has also been working hard to bring downstream countries the Sudan and Egypt to cooperation for mutual benefits. The idea of the tripartite discussion set by Ethiopia from the very beginning of the launching of the Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) is the real witness for this argument. Many political analysts believe that the discussion between the three countries has sparked a hope of ray for mutual benefit and a win-win approach.
However, Egypt still prefers to maintain its water monopoly. Ministry of Foreign Affairs disclosed that the 17th meeting on the Renaissance Dam among the three countries ended in Cairo few days ago without consensus because of Egypt’s intention to include the colonial era agreements of 1929/ 1959 as part of the negotiations.
Egypt announced that it has frozen technical negotiations with Sudan and Ethiopia following a tripartite meeting in Cairo, after Egyptian officials rejected the two countries’ amendments to the studies of the French Advisory Bureau on the Dam and its filling as well as operation.
The international community in general and Ethiopians in particular have learnt well the interests and various activities that Egypt has been executing since time immemorial in connection to upstream countries development efforts along the Nile Waters.
Despite the zero-sum game politics that Egypt has been playing for centuries, Ethiopia, the contributor of more than 85 percent of the Nile Waters, chose a win-win solution in utilizing its shared natural resource.
“Egyptian officials have been attempting to jeopardize development efforts in upstream countries particularly in Ethiopia. One of the significant sabotage which was televised was what the ousted president Mursi had conspired at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
Some possibilities were chosen by the president and his advocates that the thought could help them to destabilize Ethiopia. However, three of the strategies of Mursi to destabilize Ethiopia: using opposition political parties, supporting terrorist groups and taking military measure are chosen to be discussed in this piece of writing,” Spokes Person of Ministry Foreign Affairs told journalists last week.
Using opposition political parties as an instrument to destabilize Ethiopia and jeopardize its development is one of the strategies Egypt has planned to use during the time of president Mursi. In this regard, Egypt continued to support Ginbot 7, OLF and other groups that have been working against peace and development in Ethiopia.
It is also televised that Egypt has been exerting unreserved efforts to support protests in the Oromiya Regional State through the interview with the Egyptian coordinator of Congo and Nile Waters Dr. Nancy. She said, “Due to the protest in some parts of the Oromiya region, the construction of GERD is halt. All the roads to the Dam were blocked. And Egypt has been supporting that protest and will continue to support the OLF and the protesters at home”.
The second strategy that Mursi designed was to agitate other Nile Basin countries to stand against the Ethiopian efforts to build the GERD. It has exerted a lot of efforts to convince the international community and Nile Basin countries to support its agenda. However, that strategy has already failed as no country dares to consider that idea rather prefer to recognize Ethiopia’s right to use its resource for its poverty alleviation schemes.
The other one was to support terrorist groups that could attack the country’s mega projects. As a result, different terrorist attacks have attempted at different times so as to demolish Ethiopian Mega projects, which are directly sponsored by the Eritrean state but indirectly from Egypt. Egypt is supporting the terrorist group OLF and Ginbot 7 in a bid to jeopardize developments in Ethiopia.
The other options ousted Mursi planed was using a military option. In fact, that was not possible to Egypt as the present Ethiopia is so strong to defend itself and protect its dam. But Ethiopia’s major agenda is alleviating poverty. No more, no less. Its intention in building the GERD was emanated from this fact that is why the country has been attempting to implement a win-win solution while using its shared resource.
However, Egypt continued to reject all cooperation efforts and rather emphasized that it want to maintain its water treaty made by the two downstream countries Sudan and Egypt under the auspice of the British colony.
President El Sisi emphasized that “Egypt’s water share is a matter of life and death”. Although the Nile is a matter of life and death to Egypt, in the same degree “poverty alleviation is a matter of life and death to Ethiopia” Egypt should work for the utilization of water equity among riparian countries instead of sticking to water monopoly.
Nowadays, there is no room for Egypt to monopolize the water as it had been doing for centuries. No matter what Egyptian officials and media have been saying, Ethiopia has still the same stand. It wants to have a win-win solution to the Nile case. The country needs to use the Nile waters to meet its economic needs to its 100 million population.
There is one misunderstanding on the side of Egypt. Today’s Ethiopia is different from yesterday’s Ethiopia. Ethiopia is incredible changed and so its entire status. Egypt could win if and only if it comes to diplomatic discussions and considered the win-win approach instead of the water monopoly policy. Otherwise, no measure could retard Ethiopia from its efforts of using its natural resource.
What the Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said recently cuts no ice. He said, “No one could touch Egypt’s water share, stressing that it is a matter of “life or death,” in his first comment after his country announced the suspension of negotiations”.
Ethiopia is always ready to work for water equity and fair share. It never accepts Egypt’s water monopoly no matter what happened. The electricity which would be generated by the dam will help eradicate poverty and boost Ethiopia’s developmental Renaissance.
Cairo signed with Khartoum that includes full control of the Nile waters in 1959. This agreement, by no means, could bind Ethiopia. Moreover, the Nile Basin countries have signed a new framework agreement that could help them use the Nile Water for their developments and poverty alleviation. The Ethiopian project could also support this scheme. It will also support to remove constraints of electricity not only to Ethiopia but also to countries in the region including downstream countries.
Although Egypt advocate as if GERD only benefits Ethiopians, political and economic analysts argue that this project has immense benefit to the entire people in the region. It will play a significant role in enhancing the economic integration of countries along the Nile Basin apart from its contribution to minimize water evaporation, minimize flood and maintain constant amount of water that flows to downstream countries.
The Nile River is a huge resource that could help all countries in the region to alleviate poverty and ensure sustainable development. This is possible if and only if countries in the Basin manage to enhance proper water administration and management.
They could be benefited from developments along the Nile Basin. GERD is one of the developments that is expected to benefit all countries along the Basin. The government of Ethiopia, from the very beginning, has been expressing its belief that the EGRD will never inflict any harm on the downstream countries. It has exerted a lot of efforts to bring these countries to a round table for negotiation.
