Steady steps of cooperation and transparency over the Nile
Bereket Gebru
The relation between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia over the GERD has improved tremendously with every passing year. The hostile early days of the dam’s construction are very much gone nowadays. The melodramatic events of the past that left quite a number of analysts professing about the inevitability of water war over the Nile are largely forgotten and replaced by a mature series of round table talks.
Especially the Tripartite National Committee (TNC) made up of the water ministers of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia has been a viable force drifting the matter in the right direction. The TNC held its eighteenth meeting on October 18, 2017 in Addis Ababa. Once again, the issue at hand was tough to crack as the states always have differing interests.
Currently, the construction of the GERD is 60% complete. That entails the physical construction of major parts of the dam as attested by the towering presence of the dam at Guba. Ethiopia has plans to start storing water in the reservoir next year. However, it wants to make sure that there is a common understanding with lower riparian countries as it has been trying to do all along.
On the other hand, one of the major achievements of the TNC, the Declaration of Principles signed by the three countries in March 2015 states that the environmental and socio-economic impact assessment research being carried out by BRL and Artelia should be completed first. Then it is supposed to get the committee’s approval.
The consultancy firms were set December, 2017 as their deadline to complete the assessment. However, a delay in the study seems to have disrupted Ethiopia’s plans that it made with this provision of the declaration of principles in mind. Sticking to the declaration of principles entails waiting for the completion of the delayed assessment research. That, in turn, has its own negative consequences on Ethiopia’s quest to complete the dam and avoid additional cost.
Accordingly, it has taken the matter to the TNC in search of amicable solutions during the 18th meeting of the committee. Previous approaches by lower riparian countries to detract the progress of the dam could have made the matter more daunting than it already is. However, the close working relations along with the trust and understanding created over the years have led to a positive outcome. The TNC agreed to draw up a guideline for filling the dam and carried out the job in this meeting. The draft is expected to be signed in the next meeting.
This development is a testament to the growing spirit of cooperation in the TNC and proof of the members’ unflinching adherence to the concept of equitable utilization of the cross-border river. Considering the sensitivity of the issue of filling the GERD reservoir to all the three countries involved conducting a heated debate and finally arriving at a common ground is a commendable feat for all.
Moments like these reflect how far along the countries have come from the days of political and military tension over the use of the Nile. In a few years’ time, the Nile has been transformed by the riparian countries into a platform for cooperation and mutual benefits. The agreement is also a reflection of the things in store for the countries in the years ahead on matters pertaining to the Nile. It is a glimpse of the possibilities that lay ahead for the countries if they keep pursuing cooperation.
After their meeting, the water ministers of the three countries visited the construction of the dam. The visit created an opportunity for the ministers to get first hand information about the dam, raise some questions and convey their concerns. For Ethiopia, it was a chance to show the progress of the dam to the relevant officials of downstream riparian countries, respond to their queries, promote transparency and build trust.
The visit is also a milestone as it marks the replacement of suspicion and animosity over the Nile with transparency, trust and cooperation. The level of suspicion between the riparian countries was deep rooted and spanned millennia that such transparency could not have been thought of.
The diplomatic efforts of the three countries are worthy of complements. Especially that of Ethiopia needs to be applauded as it managed to uncover the importance the construction of the dam has to the three riparian countries. Ethiopian diplomacy effectively fought the prejudices associated with the GERD in lower riparian countries and gradually brought the positive sides to its construction to the fore.
These positive attributes of the GERD to lower riparian countries include the following points. The first attribute has to do with the fact that the GERD could increase water discharge. As Prof. Sief El Din Hamad Abdallah, the Sudanese Minister of Water Resources, pointed out at a forum organized by the Sudanese Bar Association in cooperation with the Ministry of Water Resources in March 2012 on The Cooperative Framework Agreement between the Nile Basin Countries and the Impact of the Secession of South Sudan, “Most or more than 80 percent of the Nile Basin water resources evaporate in the route from the sources to the final destinations in Sudan and Egypt, and that in South Sudan swamps alone more than 53 billion cubic meters evaporate yearly.” Considering the GERD is only twenty kilometers from the Sudanese border and the Blue Nile meets the white a good distance away from the South Sudan swamps, it is beyond contention that the GERD provides ideal water storage that adds more water to lower riparian countries.
Historical accounts document that the Nile has always caused floods and dry spells seasonally, especially in Sudan and Egypt. The construction of the GERD would, however, tackle this old problem by ensuring a steady year-round flow of the river. That could prove to be a very valuable change in both Egypt and Sudan as it positively affects agriculture and other economic activities the river supports.
The other major problem associated with the Blue Nile in lower riparian countries has been the deposition of silt, fertile soil washed away by the river, behind their dams. By taking up part of the silt that currently goes to lower riparian countries, the GERD would dramatically decrease silt deposition in both Sudan and Egypt increasing the water holding capacity of their dams.
By serving as a platform for enhancing mutual benefits, the Nile can be used as an exemplary case of equitable utilization of cross-border Rivers all around the world. The understanding and spirit of cooperation demonstrated in the 18th TNC meeting makes that possibility much stronger.