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Lesson from Revolution
Ewnetu Haile
The political developments of the last three or four years in Ethiopia make up an exciting time of research for political science students and scholars. Long before the popular changes of the past four months, Ethiopians in general debated on the things that constitute a radical change and how it could come about. As the years went by, fewer and fewer people considered EPRDF as that agent of change. The party consolidated its power through any means possible claiming a hundred percent of seats in the parliament. Regardless of the implications of such an election outcome, the party insisted that the process was open, fair and democratic. Complemented by the weak stature of opposition armed groups, many tipped the party to keep its seat for the foreseeable future. Therefore, the hope for the radical change the people were calling for seemed slim at best.
The developments of the past six years, however, changed the internal power structure of the party slowly. Following the death of the former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi who centralized both party and state power individually, the parties under the EPRDF coalition scrambled for the tremendous power he left. Although he handpicked his successor, for PM Hailemariam Desalegn, the power he left behind could not be assumed by a single strong man. Neither Hailemariam nor the heads of TPLF could fill Meles’ large shoes. That left power to be distributed among the coalition parties. Considering Meles’ party, TPLF, was the strongest of the four parties up until his death, the absence of a single strong man to replace Meles and the redistribution of power made them more assertive.
On the other hand, the economic and social realities within the country turned from bad to worse as the purchasing power of the birr plummeted making it harder for people to sustain their life styles. The price of goods and services became even more inflated draining the hopes of those who depend on a hard day’s job. On the contrary, some others became multi-millionaires over night. The new reality fueled social frustrations. The system that focused on ethnic identity and the differences between social groups helped embolden the ethnic side of these frustrations.
Then the frustrations turned into social unrests in various parts of the country. These protests were especially protracted in Oromia and Amhara regions. Somewhere in the three years of intensive social descent, the incumbent coalition launched its deep renaissance program that aimed at materializing fundamental changes congruent with the popular demands. Although the public was largely unimpressed with the overstated achievements of the program, it somehow paved the way for the new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (Ph.D.) to assume state power. Once in power, the young leader has made huge strides towards unifying the Ethiopian people, raising the sense of human rights, freedom of expression, public service, peace, security and regional integration.
Although this is definitely not a revolution, major parts of the process bear similarity with the various stages of a revolution. The onset or incubation phase of a revolution is amply represented by the piling up of social, political, economic and intellectual frustrations among the people.
The symptomatic stage follows as calls for changes start to pick momentum and the people start to clearly show their opposition. The last four years filled with protests in various parts of the country unequivocally demonstrate the transformation of social frustrations into weakly coordinated social movements that gained more maturity with time.
The third phase called crisis stage features the struggle between the forces of radical change and those who seek to keep the status quo. In the case of the struggle within the EPRDF there were fights between those who sought to evolve the party and those who wanted to hang on to the old ways. The triumph by the forces of change has set the party on a new course and some of its members are having a hard time familiarizing themselves with the changes. In fact, the changes have been so radical that opposition parties and armed groups feel that the new PM has accomplished their missions. That means there is a sense that the old EPRDF has been unrecognizably changed. Quite a large section of the population feels like the new PM is not an EPRDF man. On the other hand, some EPRDF members are upset by the new way of doing things in their party.
The fact, however, remains that Abiy Ahmed (Ph.D.) was elected by the parties in the coalition to serve as the coalition Chairman and the Prime Minister of the state. Despite the numerous changes in approach, EPRDF is still the incumbent coalition. Those that are running the country are still members of the coalition. Therefore, the continuity of the incumbent and its role as the source of radical change ensure that this is not a revolution despite the popular support. During the crisis stage of successful revolutions, the forces of change manage to topple those in power. In this case, however, an incumbent party has peacefully elected the forces of change into office without having to relinquish its control over state power.
On the other hand, there is another stage during the crisis stage in which competing powers lined up to overthrow the incumbent shake the unstable party that replaces the incumbent at the top of state power. This stage is demonstrated by the activities of EPRP, MEISON, ECHAT and Wozleague once Seded overthrew the monarchy and assumed stated power in the 1974 Ethiopian revolution. There was a bloody struggle between the new force at the top (Seded) and the others that wanted to shake it off the top and claim its position. Interestingly enough, the current change in the EPRDF is followed by a similar act. The Prime Minister himself clearly stated in one of his speeches that the explosion at the June 23 rally held in his honor was a failed attempt to execute him. Members of the same party who seek to reinstate the old way of doing things are generally regarded as the perpetrators of the attack. There have also been attempts to incite violence in different parts of the country and unsettle the newly elected group. Therefore, as in revolutions, there are powers working to unseat the new incumbent group.
The final phase is called convalescence and it is a time of recovery from the harm done during the crisis stage. It appears that the current situation in Ethiopia is between the crisis and convalescence stages. Accordingly, it exhibits some traits of both phases. As we discussed the crisis stage earlier, it is fitting that we now turn to convalescence. After being elected through one of the toughest contested elections during the EPRDF, the new PM started to take very popular measures. These measures have impressed the international community as much as they did the local population. As a result, the people have become more unified, hopeful and happy with the changes so far. The looming prospect of disintegration of the country, civil war and factionalism has also been replaced by unity, peace and solidarity.
The convalescence stage has a honeymoon period within it during which the popular force of change celebrates its victory with the people. The new leadership has enjoyed its honeymoon over the past one and half month as the original skepticism on the genuineness of change started to be replace by staunch support all across the country.
It is, however, important to note that this is not a revolution and thus the forces working to reverse the situation back are not as clear. It is still apparent that they are trying to destabilize the country through any means possible and seize control of state power. That is a big threat and huge step backwards. Therefore, we all need to take our lessons from revolutions and stamp them out once and for all.
